Who Does Not Benefit from Fact-checking Websites?: A Psychological Characteristic Predicts the Selective Avoidance of Clicking Uncongenial Facts

Fact-checking messages are shared or ignored subjectively. Users tend to seek like-minded information and ignore information that conflicts with their preexisting beliefs, leaving like-minded misinformation uncontrolled on the Internet. To understand the factors that distract fact-checking engagement, we investigated the psychological characteristics associated with users' selective avoidance of clicking uncongenial facts. In a pre-registered experiment, we measured participants' (N = 506) preexisting beliefs about COVID-19-related news stimuli. We then examined whether they clicked on fact-checking links to false news that they believed to be accurate. We proposed an index that divided participants into fact-avoidance and fact-exposure groups using a mathematical baseline. The results indicated that 43% of participants selectively avoided clicking on uncongenial facts, keeping 93% of their false beliefs intact. Reflexiveness is the psychological characteristic that predicts selective avoidance. We discuss susceptibility to click bias that prevents users from utilizing fact-checking websites and the implications for future design. © 2023 Owner/Author.

Decomposing LIBOR in transition: evidence from the futures markets

Applying historical data from the USD LIBOR transition period, we estimate a joint model for SOFR, Federal Funds, and Eurodollar futures rates as well as spot USD LIBOR and term repo rates. The framework endogenously models basis spreads between each of the benchmark rates and allows for the decomposition of spreads. Modelling the LIBOR-OIS spread as credit and funding-liquidity roll-over risk, we find that the spike in the LIBOR-OIS spread during the onset of COVID-19 was mainly due to credit risk, while on average credit and funding-liquidity risk contribute equally to the spread. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures

This paper investigates the dynamics and drivers of informational inefficiency in the Bitcoin futures market. To quantify the adaptive pattern of informational inefficiency, we leverage two groups of statistics which measure long memory and fractal dimension to construct a global-local market inefficiency index. Our findings validate the adaptive market hypothesis, and the global and local inefficiency exhibits different patterns and contributions. Regarding the driving factors of the time-varying inefficiency, our results suggest that trading activity of retailers (hedgers) increases (decreases) informational inefficiency. Compared to hedgers and retailers, the role played by speculators is more likely to be affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Extremely bullish and bearish investor sentiment has more significant impact on the local inefficiency. Arbitrage potential, funding liquidity, and the pandemic exert impacts on the global and local inefficiency differently. No significant evidence is found for market liquidity and policy uncertainty related to cryptocurrency.

The Australian Centaur State and the Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery

This article uses Loïc Wacquant's concept of the centaur state to analyse symbolic framings of the meaning and future of work in the Australian policy response to COVID-19 in 2020. In contrast with historical conceptualisations anchored in rights and social security, contemporary Australian social welfare policy discourse is dominated by political representations of the imperative to work. For people currently outside of the labour market, self-reliance through paid work is a primary objective of social security policy. In 2020, economic impacts of national lockdowns were ameliorated by large transfers from the state to businesses and individuals. Concurrent announcements of plans for a 'business-led' post-pandemic economic recovery centred the message that the meaning of work lies in its individual and social utility. Prior to the pandemic, transformation of the modes of organisation of work had already brought into question normative claims about the meaning of work, and what is comprehended by the term 'job'. Analysis of key 'economic recovery' policy initiatives illustrates that they combined considerable corporate welfare with a construction of job seekers as having unrealistic expectations of meaningful work, for which there could be no room in the institutional machinery driving economic recovery. In the policy trajectory of the Australian centaur state, the future of work for people currently unemployed is to serve as a resource to fuel the business-led recovery. © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of UNSW Canberra.

Guest editorial: Special issue introduction repurposing and repositioning events: real, responsible and revolutionary futures

Findings revealed that hygiene is not perceived as an integral part of event safety, but rather as a disconnected pillar beside traditional event safety measures and that event and health safety measures strongly influence each other, both positively, but often also negatively as event organisers are often concerned with how to get their events successfully through the approval process rather than focussing on the safety aspects. Acknowledging the prevalence of disability in its various forms in society and highlighting the fact that existing research exploring inclusive events and disabled people as event participants focuses mostly on the challenges faced by attendees, the author offers a refreshing perspective by exploring the potential that these events have and the opportunities they bring to people with disabilities and the wider community. [...]the author embraces the argument suggested in the call for papers of this special issue that events provide opportunities to determine new paths, make the future less fearsome, allow more positive outcomes and uses this description to define what they propose to be "revolutionary futures”. In an exploratory case study inspired by a hermeneutics approach and combining different methods of data collection, the author explores the perspectives of attendees, volunteers, event staff and organisers to investigate if the event can indeed create revolutionary futures.

Underreaction and overreaction in Bitcoin market

Bitcoin market had a significant momentum phenomenon before the launch of Futures, and then it turned into an insignificant reversal effect. After Covid-19 appeared, the momentum effect and reversal effect disappeared. The advent of bitcoin futures has increased how investors respond to information. With the outbreak of COVID-19, investor interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset has increased the effectiveness of the price. We estimate the speed of signal diffusion in the bitcoin market, and the results support that effective response to information is the essential mechanism for the disappearance of momentum effect.

Finding innovation opportunities in SMEs through futures and foresight learning: an action learning approach

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been particularly challenged by the Covid pandemic, the climate crisis, war and political tensions including the fuel price crisis. Strategic responses to crisis including cost-cutting as retrenchment in the short run, debt financing to preserve the status quo and exit. However, perhaps the most positive is to innovate for renewal. The paper considers how working with an approach to futures and foresight learning, three different SMEs during the Covid pandemic and beyond formed action learning groups and were able to find future opportunities from which innovation ideas for action in the present could be undertaken. The paper considers the meaning of innovation including what Revans saw as an 'Innovation Paradox' as a gap between invention and innovation. In SMEs, the importance of informal innovation and an innovation orientation are identified. The meaning futures and foresight learning is considered and the focus on the identification of new opportunities for products and services, delivered by a process of action learning. Findings from three SMEs are presented from meetings that took place during 2021 to 2022, when Covid restrictions were partly in place. They show how each programme begins with opportunity questions for the future which then lead to ideas after a consideration of trends and patterns. Further methods of futures thinking are presented which allow further ideas to be developed for innovation. In each case, ideas are selected for business planning after approval. Discussion of the findings considers the importance of futures and foresight learning combined with action learning for SMEs to become more strategic, future-oriented and creative in seeking opportunities for innovation.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility

This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows.

3D-Printed Face Mask with Integrated Sensors as Protective and Monitoring Tool

The outbreak of the recent Covid-19 pandemic changed many aspects of our daily life, such as the constant wearing of face masks as protection from virus transmission risks. Furthermore, it exposed the healthcare system's fragilities, showing the urgent need to design a more inclusive model that takes into account possible future emergencies, together with population's aging and new severe pathologies. In this framework, face masks can be both a physical barrier against viruses and, at the same time, a telemedical diagnostic tool. In this paper, we propose a low-cost, 3D-printed face mask able to protect the wearer from virus transmission, thanks to internal FFP2 filters, and to monitor the air quality (temperature, humidity, CO2) inside the mask. Acquired data are automatically transmitted to a web terminal, thanks to sensors and electronics embedded in the mask. Our preliminary results encourage more efforts in these regards, towards rapid, inexpensive and smart ways to integrate more sensors into the mask's breathing zone in order to use the patient's breath as a fingerprint for various diseases. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.

Oil in the age of coronavirus: Hysteria or appropriate fall?

We look at the oil price fall in the beginning of 2020 and the effects of coronavirus and the attention towards it on these prices. Such a fall was observed at multiple markets simultaneously with the spread of coronavirus and the panic around it, and oil market wasn't an exception. Using OLS time series models, we investigate - what was the main reason behind such a fall - the coronavirus pandemic itself or rather the attention towards it. We prove the absence of straight effects of the COVID-19 itself on oil prices. At the same time we find significant negative impact of the attention towards COVID-19 on the Internet search on the oil prices. We investigate the role of the OPEC in mitigating the negative impact of coronavirus and the attention towards it. We found that after the OPEC summit both the number of Covid cases and the attention towards the disease lost its influence on oil prices. Our paper is relevant for the behavioral finance researchers, as well as for those who look at the influence of informational shocks on different markets and particularly, on the oil market and at the effect of the COVID-19 on the economy.

Becoming immortal: future wellness and medical tourism markets

PurposeIs humanity heading to immortal living? If so, what areas of society are playing an active role in achieving this? In order to understand this, the study explores the relationship between immortality and the wellness and medical tourism industry to seek potential relationships between them and ultimately, asks difficult questions about the growth of these tourism sectors and the potential need for greater regulation of them.Design/methodology/approachTaking a pragmatic philosophical approach and through the examination of refined information from secondary sources and published material and reports, the study presents original theoretical knowledge and a model exploring tourism and human immortality.FindingsThis paper argues that continued growth in the wellness and medical markets today could lead to a world where transhumanists and cyborgs are present in our world, even taking over from Homo sapiens. The study presents a model highlighting the potential role of wellness and medical tourism markets, illustrating the potential for future consumer services that could further fuel the search for immortality. Thus, how such markets and consumer desires are (in)directly supporting humanities desire for (non-human) immortal existence.Originality/valueToday, individuals are driven by wellness practices and medical and cosmetic desires and are willing to travel the globe in search of companies who are either capable of carrying out the desired procedures or seeking prices more affordable to them. This research offers novel insights into these complex relationships and maps the affiliation between wellness and medical practices and the concept of immortality.

The relationship between crude oil futures and exchange rates in the context of the Covid-19 shock: a tale of two markets

We examine the high-frequency intraday return and volatility transmission between crude oil futures prices and exchange rates during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic in the context of two markets: the newly established renminbi-denominated Shanghai International Energy Exchange in China and the US-dollar-denominated Brent market in the United Kingdom. By controlling for the influence of the stock markets, our findings reveal significant disparities in return linkages, yet fairly comparable volatility transmission patterns. The International Energy Exchange shows no return linkages with exchange rates except before the shock, while Brent consistently shows return spillovers from crude oil futures prices to exchange rates. In both markets, the volatility spillovers from exchange rates to crude oil futures prices are unidirectional prior to the shock but become bidirectional as a result of the shock. Nevertheless, both the return and volatility spillover patterns in China resemble those in the United Kingdom when utilizing offshore instead of onshore exchange rates. Such similarities in return and volatility spillovers can also be observed during the 2022 Covid-19 shock that emerged in Shanghai. These findings have significant practical implications. © Infopro Digital Limited 2023.

Price leadership in China's oil futures market: take two

This study is the first to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the price discovery and market liquidity aspects of China's crude oil futures market compared to WTI and Brent. With intraday-day data consolidated into 1-second intervals and three measures of price discovery, we find that China's crude oil futures market reports encouraging signs in terms of price discovery and efficiency, also showing great resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. The market has obtained a dominant role in price discovery relative to WTI and Brent during its day trading hours, and has almost caught up with Brent in terms of market liquidity. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Collective Healing to Support Design Futures: Building Community and Exploring Methods

This workshop explores the role of healing ourselves as a key aspect for transformative social change. It brings together social justice and community based work in HCI that engages with healing and joy to expand on current methodologies such as autoethnography, somaesthetics, and embodied design which aim to describe different ways of knowing and describing and living experiences as inputs for design futuring. Our concern of interest is the ways in which all of us have lived through continuous community grief and loss due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and a continued climate crisis;and the resulting symptoms like anxiety, depression, body pain, and scattered focus. We believe that we must acknowledge these experiences and feelings about these events in order to effectively work towards more optimistic futures. This workshop takes the space and time to consider our recent collective traumas and explore how to integrate them into futures that support the development of futures that fit our emotional, ethical, social and physical needs. Our aim is to build a greater understanding of how the CHI community can integrate healing in support of social change. © 2023 Owner/Author.

Canadian Faculty Members' Hopes and Anxieties About the Near-Future of Higher Education

Higher education worldwide is facing several challenges spanning from economic, social, technological, demographic, environmental, to political tensions. Calls to rethink, reimagine, and reform higher education to respond to such challenges are ongoing, and need to be informed by a wide variety of stakeholders. To inform such efforts, we interviewed thirty-seven faculty members at Canadian colleges and universities to develop a greater understanding of their hopes and anxieties about the future of higher education as they considered what higher education may look like five years into the future. Results centred on four themes: (1) anxieties and hopes are shaped by supports and resources from various sources, (2) faculty members face anxiety over matters that negatively impact them but are beyond their control, (3) faculty members hope that "good” comes from the COVID-19 pandemic, and (4) faculty members hope for a well-rounded education that will enable students to succeed both within and beyond their careers. Implications for these findings suggest a need to direct research efforts and practices toward more hopeful futures for higher education, especially in the context of online and blended learning. © 2022 George Veletsianos, Nicole Johnson.

The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach

We use the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) and causality-in-quantiles methods to explore the linkage between market liquidity and efficiency in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during Phase III. Our results show that two-way causality existed under normal and lower market conditions. Additionally, the linkage between liquidity and efficiency exhibits time-varying characteristics. Except in cases of extremely high market liquidity, the pass-through effect of liquidity on efficiency is mostly positive in the long run. The linkage is stronger in the medium and long term, but the response of liquidity to efficiency shocks is more complicated. Market efficiency has an overall inhibitory effect on liquidity in the short term and a promoting effect in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we investigate the impulse response during the COVID-19 period and the war between Russia and Ukraine and find that improvements in efficiency will permanently damage liquidity. Overall, the abilities of market makers and arbitrage traders, impacted by multiple factors, play an important role in the process by which liquidity affects market efficiency. By revealing and explaining the dynamic relationship between liquidity and efficiency, this research provides valuable information for policymakers and various market participants.

Abolition as Durational Performance: Mutual Aid Aesthetics in Chicago's Southeast Asian Neighborhood

Responses to rising anti-Asian violence during the COVID-19 pandemic prompted multiple, often conflicting, actions including calls to defund the police, calls for more police, bystander interventions, and the exploitation of violence to promote influencers' brands. In Chicago's "Argyle" Uptown neighborhood, an area known as a Southeast Asian refugee business district, Asian Americans and local white government officials promoting liberal multiculturalist urban renewal projects used the news after the Atlanta spa shooting to advance their plans for gentrification and increased policing. How do we understand the colliding narratives of racial antagonisms, racial solidarities, and the genocidal logics of urban renewal, as they emerge at the intersection of settler colonialism and the afterlife of slavery? How is this question complicated by the entwined issues of refugee resettlement and multiculturalist solutions to anti-Asian violence? In this article, I argue abolition as durational performance offers an embodied, performance studies based analytic and methodology for the study and praxis of abolition. Abolition as durational performance centers the creation of life-affirming institutions, relations, and spaces while navigating the histories and bodily impacts of white supremacy, anti-Blackness, native genocide, and US liberal war on refugee resettlement as it is enacted through urban renewal and redevelopment projects. I focus on Axis Lab, a community-based arts and architecture organization based in Chicago, which launched its mutual aid and public arts project in June 2020. This is an abolitionist project inspired by the Black Panther breakfast and political education programs.

Market Return Around the Clock: A Puzzle

We study how the market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures actively traded around the clock. Strikingly, 4 hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns have a 1.6 Sharpe ratio and remain high after transaction costs. Average returns are a noisy zero during the remaining 20 hours. High returns are consistent with European investors processing information accumulated overnight and thus resolving uncertainty. Indeed, uncertainty reflected by VIX futures prices rises overnight and falls around European open. The results are stronger during the 2020 COVID crisis.

A New Approach to Improving Hedging Performance in the OLS Model

The sensitivity of VIX futures to market movements changes over time with changes in market risk. Accordingly, in the case of using the OLS (ordinary least squares) model to hedge S&P 500 exposure with VIX futures, hedge ratios are affected by changes in risk appetite, which in turn contributes to the overall hedging performance as well as the asymmetry of the performance distribution. The conventional OLS approach does not effectively reflect this phenomenon in the model. In this study, the authors explore a new approach to improving hedging performance in the OLS model. They introduce an interaction term between the VIX and VIX futures returns into the OLS model. They find that the hedge ratios derived by the new approach provide better hedging results compared to the univariate OLS model in terms of mean return and downside risk protection, and also improve the asymmetry of the performance distribution. They extend their research to compare it with the performance of the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The new approach also shows better results than the DCC-GARCH approach. They obtain the same results in case studies of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, and also in applying a trading strategy to each hedging methodology.

Speculators' dominance in the Index futures market during COVID-19

A recent study shows that index futures prices are influenced by the index's liquidity. This research describes the state of the index futures market following the epidemic as seen by index futures mispricing affected by liquidity and volatility during the outbreak.